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    Main | Obama’s geography lesson »

    September 28, 2007

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    » America's 10 political regions redefined from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
    I'm a sucker for this sort of thing: Maybe we can look at income and voting within each of these regions.... [Read More]

    Comments

    Jenny Balinsky

    No doubt, Robert David Sullivan is one of the smartest, most thoughtful people in Boston - certainly so among the ink-stained wretches. Bravo! Can't wait to read more.

    leviramsey

    Was just looking for the old version to correlate it with contributor data from the Ron Paul campaign (some analysis of which occurs at http://www.patrickruffini.com/2007/10/15/inside-ron-paul-nation/ )... the map there is only broken down by state, but you might be able to get a county-by-county breakdown to correlate his contributions with the regions...

    Expat

    that is really excellent work. Suggestion: overlay by location where electronic versus paper ballots used and from there analyze incidents of statistically significant deviations in results.

    Rockknocker

    Has Sullivan comapared his map with Goreau's map published in "Nine Nations of North America" (published around 1978)?

    I see remarkable similarities

    Brian

    A friend suggested Broward County (FL) be included with Northeast Corridor, just as Miami-Dade was put with El Norte rather than with South Coast. Was this ever considered? Outside the Everglades, the county's density is over 4,000, voting tends to be heavily Democratic, and most residents are relocated from the Northeast Corridor. Like Miami-Dade and parts of New Hampshire, perhaps some counties do not fit in with surrounding regions. I wonder if there are 10 equipopulous categories of counties not based on geography that have exhibited similar political trends over the last half century, or if counties with similar trends already tend to be located in relatively contiguous regions.

    Ray N

    I am skeptical about what primary results might say about the general election--but nonetheless I'm curious about the results. Is there a pattern in the regional primary results, and if so, does it tell us anything?

    Eyeballing the map at the New York times http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/06/05/us/politics/20080605_PRIMARIES_GRAPHIC.html

    I would guess:
    Upper Coasts—Obama (except Boston area)
    Frontier—Obama
    Mega-Chicago—Obama (except MI which doesn’t count)
    Southern Inland--Obama
    South Coast—Obama (except Florida)
    Northeast Corridor—Obama, but too crowded to tell, really.
    Chippewa—split: Obama West of Chicago, Clinton East, discount MI.
    Cumberland—Clinton (except Indianapolis, Columbus)
    Comanche—Clinton (except Austin, Houston, Dallas/Ft.Worth)
    El Norte—Clinton

    Robert David Sullivan

    That's about right. I'll be posting final numbers soon (and doing some adjusting to account for Michigan), but I've put a link to preliminary regional breakdowns in the UPDATE above.


    John Smith

    this makes completely no sense

    geography information source

    i never looked at like this before. thanks for explaining this.

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