Beyond Red & Blue

Deval Patrick: The 71st most important liberal in America

The British Telegraph newspaper is in the middle of a weeklong parlor game in which it names the Top 100 liberals and conservatives in America. Today, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick showed up at No. 71 on the left-hand list, between West Wing scribe Aaron Sorkin and former president Jimmy Carter. The capsule description does not get into Patrick's performance as governor so far:

A businessman and lawyer who became the first black governor of the New England state of Massachusetts last year and only the second black elected governor. Patrick, 51, served as an assistant attorney general in Bill Clinton’s administration but recently endorsed Barack Obama for president.

Harvard-educated, he has worked for the United Nations in Africa and is part of a new generation of black American politicians who want to move beyond the more race-based politics of the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. A possible Attorney General in an Obama administration.

Obama and the vicious circle of trying to broaden support

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama got in trouble with some liberals, and gay/lesbian groups in particular, for inviting an "ex-gay" gospel singer (see New York Times) to perform at a South Carolina rally designed to help Obama catch up to Hillary Clinton among religious African-American voters. Obama distanced himself from singer Donnie McClurkin's views on gay issues, but McClurkin stirred up the controversy at the event itself by announcing that he had been "delivered" from homosexuality. (See Pam's House Blend for some reaction from the gay community.)

I'm not going to take sides on this other than to observe that this is a common trap for a candidate who is lagging in the polls. In order to be a credible challenger to Clinton in the upcoming primaries, Obama must make a special effort to increase his support in both the black and gay communities, in part to compensate for Clinton's seemingly insurmountable lead in other demographic groups (such as older, working-class women). But there's no way to make a special appeal to religiously conservative black Southerners without arousing the suspicions of secular, urban gay voters -- and vice versa.

As frontrunner, Clinton has the luxury of steering clear of explicit pitches to subgroups within the Democratic Party. As someone who has to broaden his appeal beyond his base of highly educated, younger men, Obama may find himself painted into a corner, unable to go in any direction without arousing the ire of voters that he badly needs. That would be an ironic outcome for his "change" campaign.

 

World Series Inc.

Before the "rolling rally" parade for our beloved Red Sox, let us pause for a moment to lament the crass highjacking of the World Series by the relentless forces of cheap commercialism and down-our-throats branding by Major League Baseball.

Having teams wear uniforms is a part of the game. Having singers wear them is absurd. Yet there was Sunday night's performer of the national anthem, a country singer (who the Rockies P.A. announcer assured was very famous but with whom I was not familiar) wearing a World Series jacket as she honored America. Ditto for the foursome that warbled "God Bless America" the night before. (Whether he refused to don one of MLB's silly jackets or wasn't asked, James Taylor handled the Anthem duties before Game 2 at Fenway in a dignified blue blazer.) To all the Really Smart People at Major League Baseball: We know this is the World Series. That's why we're watching. We don't need every person who appears on-screen to be wearing a placard telling us that. 

Speaking of of advertising placards, we also all know that Chevrolet is a big MLB sponsor and that they put up big money to have their name attached to the World Series Most Valuable Player award. The TV announcers could have even told us when the winner was announced last night that the MVP award is "sponsored by Chevrolet, maker of the hottest new car for 2008, the [fill in name of newest innanely named model and cut to camera shot showing the same]." Why in the world do they have to give the MVP recipient not one, but two, brand new Chevies for his outstanding play?  None of this is to disparage MVP Mike Lowell, who is completely deserving of the honors -- and seems like a great guy to boot. But I'll bet dollars to donuts that he and the missus already own a car or two. And if they need a new one, they can probably spring for it on their own. Lowell makes $9 million a year. Why not announce that Chevrolet is donating a van or two, in his name, to some worthy youth clubs in Boston? 

There is something more than a little off-putting about the unyielding commercialization of the American pasttime, and the showering of millionaire ballplayers with cars they don't need. But I guess we're supposed to feel like we're all in on the action now: Tomorrow we get our taco. 

Still on the job

Today's map, in a seasonal color, uses recent Census data to show where people are most likely to still be working past the traditional retirement age of 65. Seniors are most likely to be in the labor force (i.e., working or actively looking for work) in mostly rural Nebraska and South Dakota, along with the urban enclave of the District of Columbia. But participation is also high throughout the Farm Belt, as well as in Northeastern states that do not have large populations in the Rust Belt (that leaves out New York and Pennsylvania). In general, states with high workforce participation among older residents tend to have healthy and relatively well-educated populations, in addition to low unemployment rates overall.

For more Census data on workforce participation by age group, click here. For an Excel sheet of the data in the map, download http://massinc.typepad.com/Workforceparticipation2006.xls

Where the presidential candidates have touched down

The New York Times has an interactive map showing where all the presidential candidates have made visits since the beginning of the year. Both parties have campaign activity focused in Iowa and New Hampshire, but it's notable that Republicans have spent much more time than Democrats have in Florida and Michigan, which have unsanctioned early primaries. The Democrats are maintaining good relations with party leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire, but are they squandering the opportunity to make inroads among independent voters in larger states? So suggests CQPolitics.com's Craig Crawford.

Red Sox Nation has no WMDs

More musings on the boundaries of Red Sox Nation at The Eisenthal Report, along with an observation on the upside of sports partisanship:

how comforting it is to live in a part of the world where clashes of identity can be channeled in such benign ways - no one is going to become a suicide bomber if the Red Sox lose the World Series.

If only we could keep the rich/poor from voting

Then we wouldn't have such close elections. Political scientist Andrew Gelman has posted some maps showing how the rich, middle-class, and poor voted in the last presidential election. Massachusetts is second only to Connecticut in the percentage of rich folks ("limousine liberals"?) voting Democratic. In fact, if I'm reading these maps correctly, economic status seems to be a complete nonfactor in how people in Connecticut vote.

Voting as if your life depended on it

Scientific American.com reports on a study, by political scientist James Fowler, suggesting that the desire to cast a ballot is genetic. That's one explanation for the finding that identical twins are more alike in voter behavior than are fraternal twins, who share less DNA: 

Fowler notes that people who vote often do so even when they know their lone ballot will not change the outcome of an election. “It’s almost like voters are programmed to keep voting, even when their common sense tells them it is probably useless,” he states....

Fowler hypothesizes that because “we obviously did not vote in large-scale elections in the Pleistocene,” the drive to vote or participate in politics may be linked with genes underlying more ancient behaviors, such as innate dispositions toward cooperation.

I wonder whether "innate dispositions" explain not only the eagerness to vote, but also the degree to which one thinks society's very existence depends on the outcome of an election. And I'm not just talking about presidential elections, but about zoning variances being put to a vote at town meetings. The idea of a new curb cut in the neighborhood seems to unleash raw, primal emotions in some people.

The idea that genetics trumps get-out-the-vote efforts is not inconsistent with another study released this year, which said one's interest in politics comes directly from one's parents. I included the item in the "Statistically Significant" department of the current issue of CommonWealth:

Adolescents who discuss current events with their parents are more civically engaged and more eager to vote than their peers, say three researchers in the July issue of PS: Political Science and Politics. That may seem obvious, but the more surprising result of their regression-analysis study is how little socioeconomic factors matter. “The effect size of the youth-discussion variable,” write Hugh McIntosh, Daniel Hart, and James Youniss, “is three times larger than any other parent or youth predictor” in determining whether a high schooler regularly follows the news. The study showed no significant correlation between “news monitoring” and whether one’s parents were homeowners, were steadily employed, or even whether they had voted themselves during the previous five years. “Who parents are” is less important than “what parents do with their children,” the authors conclude.

Does Menino see dollar signs in surveillance cameras?

Boston Mayor Tom Menino has said he wants to install cameras at key intersections to nab the city's notoriously heavy-footed drivers who think a yellow light is their cue to speed up. "A thousand Americans were killed in 2003 because people chose to run a red light," Menino's transportation commissioner, Tom Tinlin, told the Boston Globe last December. "The scope of this project is very specific. It's to tell people to stop running red lights. That's the only intent."

Maybe so. But reports from other cities suggest the added eyes on drivers and resulting traffic offense fines can also be a cash cow for strapped municipal budgets. This is a bonus that surely won't be turned down by Menino, who often complains about the city's limited means of raising revenue. Today's Houston Chronicle reports that cameras installed last fall at 50 intersections there have so far brought in $6 million. Meanwhile, the Miami Herald reports that city commissioners there gave initial approval yesterday to a plan for intersection cameras, a move that supporters say could generate as much $10 million in annual revenue for the city.

The Herald reports that a 2005 Federal Highway Administration study found a decrease in "T-bone-type" accidents at intersections with cameras, but an increase in rear-end collisions. The paper says the increase in rear-enders is presumably a result of drivers becoming skittish about the cameras and stopping quickly when drivers behind them aren't expecting it, something that could be a particular problem under Boston's yellow-light-means-go-like-hell rules of the road.

Acela is A-OK, but train whistles are a devilish nuisance

The Boston Globe' s David Abel reports on a 20 percent jump in ridership this year on Amtrak's Acela service to New York and Washington:

In the 20 years he has been selling tickets for Amtrak, Jimmy Tsang has seen his share of long lines and harried passengers. But the South Station agent says he has not seen anything like the crush of the past year.

"Every train is packed," said Tsang, who sells tickets for the Acela Express. "The trains are sold out every weekend."

Good news for Amtrak and, arguably, the environment. Terrible news for anyone thinking of going to New York with less than a month of advance planning (but you can't find a hotel on such short notice anyway). Then again, good news for polite people who don't try to hog two seats on the train by scattering their coats, books, laptop, etc. If a train is sold out, the entitled people who fend off seatmates for as long as possible will end up sitting next to the passengers who rush on at the last possible moment -- who always have too much luggage and too many things to talk about.

Trains are not as popular in certain South Shore towns that have banned whistles from commuter trains on the new Greenbush Line. According to the Globe's Peter J. Howe:

Nationally, all train engineers are required to sound their horns at every public grade crossing -- two long blasts, a short, and a long -- even at crossings protected by the kinds of striped gates and flashing lights and bells in place on the Greenbush line. But the Federal Railroad Administration grants exemptions in cities and towns where local officials petition for waivers, including ... the five Greenbush communities of Braintree, Weymouth, Hingham, Cohasset, and Scituate. Administration spokesman Warren Flatau stressed that even in no-horn zones, "if they believe there's an imminent hazard or emergency, engineers are still allowed" to sound the horn.

Some say this is a reckless policy, but given the MBTA's fiscal woes, I doubt it will follow Massport's lead in appeasing residents concerned about noise. The airport authority simply installed soundproof windows in homes under flight corridors in East Boston, Revere, South Boston, and Winthrop. That's why you'll sometimes see "Massport windows" listed as an amenity in real estate listings from those areas. (Google the phrase if you want to find a place near Logan.)

Rudy still in the catbird seat

New polls in California and Florida give Rudy Giuliani 25 to 30 percent of the Republican presidential primary vote, with no other candidate cracking 15 percent in either state. Time is running out for anti-Giuiliani forces to unite around an alternative. As I've argued before, Giuliani is the only candidate who now stands to win several big-state primaries with minimal effort, meaning that he can force a campaign-spending arms race in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and not worry about the Day After.

Of course, if Romney, Thompson, McCain, or Huckabee sweeps the early contests, that candidate will suddenly shoot up in the polls in Florida and Texas. But I'm still dubious that a candidate identified with the religious right is going to win the GOP primaries in the big blue states of California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. 

It's pissah to talk like a Red Sox fan

Dorchester native Patrick Radden Keefe writes on Slate.com about what most actors get wrong in doing a Boston accent. His nomination for the most authentic-sounding actor: Ben Affleck in Good Will Hunting. Even though "the guy's Nawt from Dawt"!

And trying to imitate famous politicians from Boston comes with its own pitfalls, as James Horrigan explains in the new issue of CommonWealth.

Red Sox Nation border skirmishes

On the eve of the World Series, it's time to ask: Exactly where is Red Sox Nation? Strange Maps (click on the map to get a more complete view) has one answer, although it's unclear who drew the boundaries. CommonCensus has a slightly different take, based on an admittedly small sample of online votes. Both maps show Red Sox nation taking in a slice of upstate New York and almost all of Connecticut, which seems rather generous to me.

Amont the comments on the Strange Maps post:

actually about half of Connecticut (the southern half unsurprisingly) are very loyal yanks fans. we here in mass and northern CT find it very distressing to have so many crazy people so close to us.

Eric Gagne was quoted a few days ago saying that Red Sox country extends all the way to Montreal now that the Expos have left town.

Upstate NY is solidly Yankee country with a smattering of Mets and Red Sox fans. Last year the local Syracuse paper touched off an uproar by including the Red Sox in their upcoming week’s schedule sidebar. They aren’t included this year.

The Common Census map also allows you to pick a geographical point and see all the votes cast for 50 to 200 miles in all directions. It's probably not too shocking that the second most popular team in the heart of Red Sox territory is the New York Yankees; if you live in Boston but don't like the Red Sox, what better way to show your contempt? I was more amused that when I clicked on the heart of Colorado Rockies territory, the number two team was the Red Sox (185 to 37 votes), but there seem to be a handful of Red Sox fans almost wherever one clicks.

Has Burlington saved the Bay State's bacon?

Last December, the US Census Bureau estimated that Massachusetts had gained residents in 2006, after being the only state to lose population in both of the previous years. This summer, we got some more specifics, as the Census Bureau released data for all 351 cities and towns in the state, and I was suprised to learn that it was not the southeastern part of Massachusetts that turned things around. In fact, Cape Cod, which had been growing faster than the state as a whole for several decades, lost some 1,300 residents from 2005 to 2006, and is now at its lowest population level since the beginning of the decade. This is only an estimate, of course, and it's entirely possible that Cape Cod is still gaining people as a result of legal and illegal immigrants, students, and other groups that are often undercounted between complete censuses. But it's still remarkable that Cape Cod, and the southeast in general, is no longer driving population growth here.

Below are four maps that show geographic patterns in population change in Massachusetts. First, we see that last year's uptick in population was strongest in a scattered assortment of suburbs in all directions (save dead east) from Boston, but the adjoining towns of Burlington and Billerica registered the biggest jumps. Meanwhile, 160 of the state's 351 communities still lost population, which was slightly up from the 156 that lost population from 2004 to 2005.

The map below shows raw numbers rather than percentages, and the three biggest gainers (Burlington, Billerica, and Revere) grew by more people than the state did as a whole. Cambridge was the only other community to add more than 1,000 residents; that all four communites lie north of Boston goes against the perception that urban sprawl is mostly affecting newer suburbs to the south and west of the capital city. Boston itself is estimated to have lost almost 6,000 people last year, but the Census Bureau has admitted that it undercounted the city's population during the first half of the decade, so it could be off again.

The two maps below show the changes from 2000 to 2006, and the usual growth suspects (the Cape and Islands, MetroWest, South Shore) are more prominent here. We'll have to wait until next year to see if they pick up again, something that may depend on home prices and on zoning decisions by local governments.

25 Years After Reagan: Partisan Changes in Comanche

Comanche is our second region to be analyzed on the basis on the Republican vote for president in 1980 vs. 2004. (See the map for Chippewa here, and a map of all 10 regions here.) This region includes the western part of the Bible Belt, as well as several areas where oil and other forms of energy form a major sector of the economy. This was Ronald Reagan's second strongest region in 1980, when the Frontier region (most of the western US) was still the base of the GOP. But in 1996 it assumed the mantle of the most Republican region, and it's unlikely to relinquish it in 2008. The party's shift toward George W. Bush's "compassionate conservatism" (i.e., strongly conservative on social issues, but not so aggressive in holding down government spending) seems to have been well-received here, in contrast to the more libertarian West.

The Republican Party has enjoyed robust growth here even after Ronald Reagan became president. As in the nation at large, urban cores have trended Democratic during this period, most notably in Dallas County (where Bush beat Democrat John Kerry by a slim 50-49 percent in 2004) but also to a lesser extent in Houston and Austin. (New Orleans also swung strongly toward the Democrats, but the population drop caused by Hurricane Katrina makes that city a question mark for 2008.) However, suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas have grown faster than central cities, and they have become steadily more Republican. The region also includes several mid-sized cities known for the presence of conservative Christian groups, including Wichita (in Kansas's Sedgwick County, highlighted above) and Colorado Springs (in Colorado's El Paso County, which went 67 percent for Bush in 2004, even as the Republican vote rest of the state had cooled down to something close to the 50 percent mark). Add all the counties up, and the Republicans should win Comanche without any problem in 2008; if either candidate schedules a lot of campaign appearances, you'll know that the GOP is in trouble.

"Giuliani's dead zone advantage," or "Son of Jimmy Carter"

Jimmy Carter won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976 with great help from early victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, but what clinched things for him was the fact that he was the only candidate to compete in every contested primary that year. While his base was in the South, he won delegates in practically every state. He had the fewest "dead zones," or states in which his support was practically nonexistent, of all the candidates running that year. The same phenomenon helped Michael Dukakis win the Democratic nomination in 1988. (Overall, he ran poorly in the South, but even in that region he had pockets of strength in affluent suburban areas, while Al Gore and other candidates faced complete wipeouts outside of their home regions.)

The "dead zone" theory of politics provides an answer to the question "How can Rudy Giuliani, a pro-choice New Yorker, possibly win the Republican nomination in 2008?" He can do it by getting more votes in the states most hostile to him (red states, especially in the South) than any of his rivals can get in his friendliest states (blue states, especially in the Northeast). In other words, if he can shut out his rivals on his home turf, he can pick up one-quarter to one-third of the delegates in the South and win the nomination. (I'm generally skeptical of predictions that a nomination struggle will last all the way into the late spring, but this time I'm not sure that Republican voters in blue states will fall in line behind a Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, especially if one of them wins Iowa by running hard to the right on social issues.)

[UPDATE: As one reader points out, many Republican primaries are winner-take-all affairs, meaning that Giuliani could win, say, 40 percent of the popular vote and still get no delegates from a particular state. I do think, however, that if Giuliani leads in the polls and can say that he's winning the most votes cast in the primaries, he will be able to win at least a few of the more moderate red states (Florida, perhaps Virginia) outright and take the lead in delegates.]

Giuliani has already made the most progress in erasing his dead zones. The map below is based on the latest presidential primary polls in 35 states, as compiled on the Web site USA Election Polls. (There are no polls available for Alaska, the District of Columbia, or Hawaii.) Giuliani is currently polling below 15 percent in only three states: Huckabee's Arkansas, Romney's second home of Utah, and Iowa, where the caucus system is thought to favor religious right candidates. Outside of those states, he has a base of voters large enough so that if a single conservative rival does emerge, he will have to work hard to defeat Giuiliani, and he probably won't have enough money to challenge Giuiliani in the Northeast.

Below are comparable maps for Giuliani's three main rivals. Thompson and Romney's strength may be understated because some of the polls are several months old, but the maps do show how much work it will be to catch up to Giuliani in getting rid of their dead zone states.

For the sake of completeness, below are comparable maps for the current poll numbers of the three Democratic candidates in their respective primaries. Note that Hillary Clinton has a 15 percent base in every state that has been polled. Obama comes close to being a national candidate (see "Obama's geography lesson"), but Edwards is being hobbled by his inability to get in the game even in his home region of the South.

The view on the 5th from Washington

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne weighs in on the 5th District race narrowly won by Niki Tsongas:

Her victory on Tuesday speaks to the continuing unpopularity of President Bush and the war in Iraq. But her less than robust margin over Republican Jim Ogonowski -- she won 51 percent to his 45 percent, with minor-party candidates taking the rest -- tells Democrats they cannot assume that Bush's low standing will turn the road to next year's elections into easy street. Individual candidates can still trump party affiliation, and sleeper issues can catch politicians by surprise.

Ogonowski's "sleeper issue" was illegal immigration, but that may have been trumped by health insurance for children. See our maps on the 5th results here.

Fun with presidential campaign contributions

The Federal Election Commission has released data on contributions to presidential campaigns as of the last day of September, so it's time for some geographic data-crunching. (But if you go to the FEC site, beware of the ghost of Tommy Thompson! The FEC lists the withdrawn Republican candidate from Wisconsin in the same charts as the current Republican candidate from Tennessee, and refers to them both as simply "Thompson.")

The map above compares the money ("contributions" meaning dollars, not individual contributors) given to Democratic and to Republican candidates in each state. Not surprisingly, the resembles the red/blue split of the last election, though the candidacies of North Carolina Democrat John Edwards and Republican Mitt Romney (of the Michigan Romneys, even though he lives in Massachusetts) have skewed things a bit.

Below are maps showing where each candidate have raised the largest shares of money given to all candidates in his or her party. That is, the maps are more likely to indicate strength in primaries and caucuses than in a general election. For those of you who like to play with Excel, the data used in these maps are here: Download PresidentialcampaigncontributionsthroughSept2007.xls

More data and analysis to follow in later posts...

 

A taxing label

The Bay State may no longer deserve the “Taxachusetts” label that was a drag on our reputation, if not economy, for so long. We place squarely in the middle (28th) in this year’s ranking of overall state and local tax burden by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. But the Washington-based think tank says we still deserve the unflattering moniker when it comes to one particular area of taxation.

In an op-ed in yesterday’s Boston Herald, Curtis Dubay, an economist at the foundation, says the Massachusetts economy is held back by “the state’s egregious business taxes.” Massachusetts ranks 34th in the group’s 2008 State Business Climate Index, giving us a less business-friendly tax environment than Illinois, Michigan, and Lousiana (places that Dubay says are “thought of as tax hells”). Dubay cites the state’s 9.5 percent corporate income tax rate (4th highest in the country) and high unemployment insurance taxes as major culprits.

Dubay is dubious of Gov. Patrick’s plans to give the state’s economy a long-term boost through initiatives such as his proposed big investments in education, saying “a much quicker fix would be to attract companies and their jobs with a more competitive tax system.” There is considerable debate, however, over how big a role taxes play in business location decisions. Indeed, the Tax Foundation’s own 2007 report on state business taxes pointed out that research by Bob Tannenwald of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank suggests that public expenditures such as education spending are more important to businesses than tax burden.

The permanent campaign

The Washington Post's Dan Balz takes a look at the efforts by Iowa and New Hampshire to preserve their spots at the head of the line in the presidential nomination process as other states try to get in on the action, even if it means starting things before New Year's Eve hangovers have dissapated:

[It] guarantees the longest-ever general election in the nation's history, a costly, negative nine-month marathon that will exhaust the candidates and try the patience of a public that has been paying extraordinarily close attention to this campaign for almost a year already. It's no way to elect a president, particularly at a critical moment in the country's history.

Whether the public will lose its "patience" over nine months is an intriguing question. After all, practically every other democracy in the world has official opposition-party leaders all the time, not just during campaign seasons. Perhaps it would be a useful experiment for the US to try that model out for a while.

Hastert brings a special touch to congressional elections

The Associated Press is reporting yesterday that former US House Speaker Dennis Hastert will resign from his congressional seat in Illinois this year, setting up a special election for his successor. There doesn't seem to be any medical reason why Hastert, a Republican, can't hang on until the next regularly scheduled election, but AP reporter Charles Babington speculates:

Republicans hope to hold the seat ahead of the November 2008 election, which some fear will draw large numbers of Democratic voters unhappy with President Bush and the Iraq war.

In addition to a smaller turnout, a special election will probably be limited to those who can raise money and put a campaign together relatively quickly. This seems to be a bipartisan tradition in Illinois, which has a Democratic member who succeeded his father in a "special" manner. As Jack Mellyn at CQ.Politics.com describes it:

William Lipinski’s decision to retire after the 2004 primary election paved the way for local party officials to select Daniel Lipinski as the Democratic nominee, as permitted under Illinois election law, and essentially assure his election that November in the strongly Democratic-leaning district.

So far, the only other early retirement from the current session of Congress was that of the Bay State's own Marty Meehan, who was replaced by Niki Tsongas in a special election earlier this week. Other special elections have been prompted by the deaths of congressmen from Ohio and Virginia.

Worcester isn't west!

As if gambling isn't controversial enough on its own, Gov. Patrick's proposed "casino zones" -- three regions that would each host one Vegas-style complex -- are also stirring up trouble. Specifically, some residents in the far west object to being lumped in with Worcester County, and they fear getting cut out of the action. "It's another example of people misunderstanding what Western Massachusetts is," Chicopee mayor Michael D. Bissonnette told the Springfield Republican. "Western Massachusetts is the four western counties." (That would be Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, and Hampshire.)

We'd like to dispel the stereotype of Bostonians thinking that the "west" begins in Dedham, so we'll remind our Area Code 617 readers that that the blogosphere does extend beyond Route 128. Walking the Berkshires, for example, gives a western perspective on the casino brouhaha. But is it too late to bring the state together? The Berkshire blogger darkly warns of "longstanding resentment, dare I say even secessionist grumbling out here that Boston hasn't got a clue about what lies West of Worcester."

The lowdown on the 5th

The results from the 5th District congressional race are in, and as our map above shows, Democrat Niki Tsongas won by holding the Democratic cities of Lawrence and Lowell, plus sweeping the largely affluent suburbs in the south of the district. You can see town-by-town raw data at Boston.com, plus analysis at Blue Mass. Group. As the latter points out, a 47 percent vote against the Democrat is "normal" for this district, at least compared with the last gubernatorial race.

Indeed, Republican Jim Ogonowski did better than the 2006 combined vote for Republican Kerry Healey and conservative independent in only three communities: his hometown of Dracut, plus the nearby cities of Methuen and Haverhill. He apparently failed to hold the non-Democratic vote from last year's gubernatorial election in the southern and western edges of the district, though one could argue that he did a pretty good job in the rest of the district, given how badly the Republicans have been polling in Massachusetts and nationwide this year.

 

Our third map shows how much work the GOP needs to do in order to get back the solid majority that Mitt Romney won here in the 2002 gubernatorial election. Their road map is clear, though, as the conservative heart of the district has clearly shifted from the bedroom communities in the south to the more blue-collar cities and towns that are closer to New Hampshire.

Electric fence keeps presidential candidates in line

At least that's the effect of their pledges not to campaign in any state that dares to defy Iowa and New Hampshire by holding their primary too early. The St. Petersburg Times's Adam C. Smith has an amusing story about how quickly the candidates flee when he reveals where he's from:

"She's only doing local press," Mo Elleithee, a Clinton adviser, explained by phone. "And I'm local press from Florida," I said. "But now I'm in New Hampshire, so I'm legal to talk to." "But you're still from Florida," Elleithee sighed. "A tiger can't change its stripes." ...

"I'm not allowed to talk to the press!" Illinois Sen. Obama shouted back at me recently after I tried shouting from 100 feet away as he left a $1,000-per-person fundraiser in St. Petersburg.

"Isn't it up to you?!"

Obama: "Nope!"

Maybe the world is flat, but state lines remain impenetrable barriers in American presidential elections.

Libertarian nation, from New Hampshire to Nevada

Third-quarter presidential fundraising statistics are out, and places like the New York Times have rather unhelpful maps that show where candidates are getting their money but are not adjusted for population differences. However, Republican consultant Patrick Ruffini has calculated which states have given the most to liberatarian-leaning GOP candidate Ron Paul on a per-capita basis. New Hampshire and Nevada are on top, and support for Paul is weakest in the South. The geographic pattern is similar to support for third-party candidates John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992; we'll have to see if that enters into Paul's decision on whether to go for a Libertarian Party run, assuming he doesn't get the GOP nomination.

Why Johnny Can't Walk to School

"Less than 15 percent of all schoolchildren walk or ride bicycles to school," notes Charles Euchner (a frequent contributor to CommonWealth) in a fascinating Hartford Courant column. The main reason is the trend toward fewer but larger ("super-sized") schools, many of them sited far from residential areas. (Kids make too much noise, so why not put them in town's warehouse district?) But Euchner points out some of the drawbacks of this phenomenon -- not only the lack of exercise for kids who have to be driven to school, but also the fact that "gigantism requires extra layers of bureaucracy, which puts distance between educators and students."

I can think of another benefit of schools that are within walking distance of most students rather than a long bus ride away: They can start classes later and allow kids some to sleep in a little later, a need that Po Bronson explores in New York magazine.

Election eve maps: 5th Congressional District

The above map shows what a Republican victory looks like in the 5th District of Massachusetts, where voters will be choosing between Democrat Niki Tsongas and Republican Jim Ogonowski in a special election tomorrow. Mitt Romney who easily carried the district in 2002, winning all but four communities. (Note: The 5th District does not include a small portion of Wayland, but the votes involved would not change the overall results shown in these maps.)

Next we see the results of the governor's race last year. The 5th was one of Democrat Deval Patrick's two or three weakest congressional districts, but he still won a majority against the combined totals of Repubican Kerry Healey and conservative independent Christy Mihos.

Finally, we see where the greatest changes occurred between the 2002 and 2006 races. If Ogonowski is to pull off an upset in the 5th, he needs to get out the presumably more conservative voters who were cool toward Patrick in Dracut, Billerica, Lowell, and Tewksbury (while hoping that loyal Democrats in those communities stay home) or get back some of the Romney votes that swung toward Patrick in the more moderate towns of Sudbury, Wayland, Carlisle, Acton, and Concord.

Sunday quickie: Independent voters in Massachusetts

For some reason, my Bloglines feed for today's Boston Globe sent me a chart listing the percentage of voters in each Massachusetts town who are "unenrolled" (i.e., not affiliated with a party). There was no story with it that I could find; even worse, there was no map, so I made the one above based on their data. Notice that independents are strongest in: small towns; communities close to the New Hampshire and Vermont borders; and towns far from the state capital of Boston. I wonder whether that last criterion (distance from the capital and/or largest city) is true in other states.

Independents make up more than 70 percent of the electorate in Monroe, Gosnold, Savoy, Florida, Phillipston, Westhampton, Clarksburg, and New Ashford. (All but Gosnold, a string of islands between the mainland and Martha's Vineyard, are in the western part of the state.) Independents are scarcest in Fall River (33 percent), Cambridge (35 percent), and Boston (37 percent), all overwhelmingly Democratic cities.

Land sharks: Keep walking or get arrested

The New York Times reports on the case of a pedestrian arrested for -- well, not being enough of a pedestrian:

According to court documents, a man named Matthew Jones was charged with disorderly conduct ... in June 2004. According to court papers, a police officer "observed defendant along with a number of other individuals standing around at the above location, to wit a public sidewalk, not moving, and that as a result of defendant’s behavior, numerous pedestrians in the area had to walk around defendants."

The short news item is accompanied by dozens of online complaints about slow walkers, cellphone abusers, and people who get in the way on escalators.

This is a real conundrum for those of us who live or work in Boston, especially along the Freedom Trail. Yes, we value liberty and are not fond of laws that restrict personal movement or the lack thereof. But it would make our commutes shorter if tourists weren't allowed to stop and gawk on our narrow sidewalks...

Transit stats: MBTA ridership is southbound

Public transit fans (not to be confused with foamers) should head over to the American Public Transportation Association to get ridership stats for the first six months of 2007. The bottom line is that more people are going public -- 78 million more trips compared the first six months of last year -- but Boston's MBTA lags on all counts.

Ridership on commuter rail was up 5.5 percent nationwide and up 2.7 percent in the Boston area. Light rail (trolleys) was up 4.1 percent nationally but down 2.0 percent in Boston; buses were up 0.6 percent nationally but down 4.3 percent in Boston. And ridership for heavy rail was up 2.8 percent nationally but down 8.0 percent in Boston -- which was the steepest slide among all 13 systems in the US with subway systems.   

Indefensible political statement of the week

"Voters have a very strange way of not listening to the pundits." -- Gary Hart, to the Boston Globe's Scot Lehigh in an October 5 column titled "Clinton is far from 'inevitable.'"

Watch out for this quote, or variations on it, to be used by countless political pundits over the next few months. And remember that the reason so many political pundits get to practice their craft over decades and decades is that they are rarely proven wrong. And they're rarely proven wrong because voters almost always do what the pundits say they will. Just as they almost always behave how public opinion polls predict that they will behave. (Even Hart's upset victory over Walter Mondale in the 1984 New Hampshire primary was anticipated by late polls -- and voters in later primary states confirmed the conventional wisdom by giving Mondale enough delegates to win the nomination anyway.)

If an occasional example of mildly unexpected behavior is enough to justify Hart's statement, he might as well say the same thing about Academy Award voters, Olive Garden chefs, and the swallows of Capistrano.

Dems diss Michigan

Yesterday five Democratic candidates (Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, Kucinich) pulled their name off the ballot for the January 15 presidential primary in Michigan, leaving Christopher Dodd as the only obstacle to a victory by Hillary Clinton in that state. (And both Clinton and Dodd have promised not to actually campaign in Michigan.) See Boston Globe story here.

The reason for boycotting a state of 10 million people is to avoid offending New Hampshire's 1.3 million people and their first-in-the-nation primary. But I'm not writing to criticize New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, who have done an admirable job of objectively scrutinizing all the presidential candidates and then usually picking someone from Massachusetts (Dukakis, Tsongas, Kerry).

I'm more disappointed by the lack of juicy data that could have come out of a contested Michigan primary. Michigan would have been Hillary Clinton's first real primary contest in a major state (she never had any credible Democratic challengers running for the US Senate in New York), and it would have provided a lot of clues about her potential strength in wealthy suburbs, blue-collar cities, and rural areas outside of idiosyncratic New England. It also would have been revealing to compare turnout on the Democratic and Republican sides of the primary, to see which party is better at getting out their voters.

Of course, we'll get this kind of data from the February 5 mega-primary of more than 20 states -- if the contest lasts that long, which will happen only if Clinton loses in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina. Ironically, the patron saint of long-shot candidates, Jimmy Carter, won the Democratic nomination in 1976 largely because he was the only one who competed in every contest, whether it was a caucus, a primary, or a "beauty contest" that didn't actually award convention delegates. (Michigan in 2008 may actually fall into that last category.) The constant news stories about Carter victories overwhelmed the candidates who had decided to compete in only a few selected states.

25 Years After Reagan: Partisan changes in Chippewa

Here is the first map that combines our master map of changes in the Republican share of the presidential vote from 1980 through 2004 with our 10-region political breakdown of the US. Chippewa is one of two swing regions, and it includes parts of the battleground states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota,  Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is the only "blue" region (i.e., carried by Kerry) that has become less Democratic since Ronald Reagan became president, albeit by a small amount. What distinguishes it from other blue regions is that the suburbs here have continued to trend Republican, even as the GOP move to the right on social issues seems to have hurt the party in the suburbs of the Northeast, West Coast, and other parts of the Midwest including Chicago. The deep red spots on the map represent suburbs of Buffalo, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and Pittsburgh. If you combine those areas with the large rural stretches of the region -- places like upstate Michigan and Wisconsin, which have large numbers of National Rifle Association members -- you can see how the a Republican might do well here in 2008.

What kept Bush from carrying the region in the last election was the urban vote, which has been trending Democratic as it has just about everywhere in the US. Cities like Cleveland and Syracuse have are still becoming more and more Democratic, while Minneapolis and Pittsburgh (the holes in the red doughnuts of Minnesota and Pennsylvania) held the line for Al Gore and John Kerry.

For 2008, the questions for Chippewa are: Will suburbs belatedly move toward the Democrats, or has the GOP found the right mix of cultural conservatism and foreign-policy toughness to retain middle-class voters? Will rural voters stick with the party that opposes gun control and abortion, or will bad economic conditions lead them to strike out against the incumbent party (something they've done several times in the recent past)? As for the urban centers, it's hard to imagine them swinging strongly toward Republicans; the question is whether their declining populations will make it impossible to cancel out the more conservative suburbs.

Neighborhood anchors face extinction

Entrepreneur.com has an interesting list of the 10 Businesses Facing Extinction in 10 Years. No surprise that newspapers and pay phones are on there, but a few may be worrisome to those trying to revive urban business districts: Used bookstores, record stores, and (arguably) gay bars. These kinds of businesses, with low start-up costs and little need for advertising, once thrived in neighborhoods that weren't quite affluent enough to attract national chains like The Gap or Urban Outfitters. I'm thinking in particular of Somerville's Davis Square, considered a shining example of a vibrant neighborhood on a public-transit line with an economy based almost entirely on independent businesses. One of them is a used bookstore (McIntyre and Moore), and not too long ago there were two used record stores, all of them conducive to browsing. Can we nurture other Davis Squares without these kinds of establishments?

The solidifying South

Over the next few months, I'll be posting maps to set up the geographical context of the 2008 presidential election, and to explain how I came up with the 10 Regions of American Politics. Today's map (click to get a larger view) shows how much the two parties' bases have changed since Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 -- that is, during the quarter century in which conservative Republicanism dominated American politics. As it happens, the GOP share of the vote in 1980 and in 2004, when George W. Bush was elected to a second term, was almost exactly the same (50.75 percent for Reagan, 50.73 percent for Bush), which makes for a handy comparison.

As the map shows, the Republican Party has become more dependent on the South and on rural areas since Reagan (a Western suburbanite) was its leader. Georgia and Louisiana are much more Republican than when Jimmy Carter was the Democratic nominee, but you can see specks of blue (representing a GOP slide) in Atlanta and New Orleans. And even Texas has a light blue island (Dallas) in a sea of red. Conversely, in the north, Oregon has become more Democratic thanks to the Portland area, but the rural counties in the east of the state have actually become more solid for the GOP.

Stay tuned for close-up maps breaking down the changes in party share by region. For now, you can also view more detailed version of the above map, including county lines, by clicking on the thumbnails below.