Beyond Red & Blue

Pioneer Institute: Spend more on public colleges!

Well, maybe that's not exactly their point.

UPDATE: Steve@Pioneer claims in our Comments section that Pioneer was actually trying to point out that Massachusetts has a heavy public debt, not that we spend relatively little on public higher education, and he points to this op-ed as proof. According to Pioneer's Charles Chieppo and Steve Poftak, the debt amounts to $12,550 per citizen. But surely we can match that by spending more on public higher ed. Doesn't every freshman deserve one of these as a reward for graduating from high school?

Lay of the land: Ohio Democratic primary

Though Ohio isn't quite as kaleidoscopic as Wisconsin, its voting patterns in Democratic presidential primaries is pretty colorful. And, as in Wisconsin, the political diversity of its major cities often mean that the rural counties determine the outcome of close races.

The map below shows how each Ohio county voted in the last three Democratic primaries that were at all competitive. In 1980, incumbent president Jimmy Carter defeated Ted Kennedy 51 percent to 44 percent; the map shows whether Carter got a majority in each county. In 1984, Gary Hart nosed out Walter Mondale, 42-40, with Jesse Jackson geting 16 percent of the vote. And in 2004, John Kerry got 52 percent to John Edwards's 34 percent and Dennis Kucinich's 9 percent; the map shows whether Kerry got a majority in each county.

In 2004, just over half of the votes came from the eight counties highlighted below. Cleveland's Cuyahoga County and Warren's Trumbull County are distinguished by their habit of going against the state as a whole -- and going for union favorites and economic populist candidates such as Kennedy, Mondale, and, if you combine their votes, Edwards and Kucinich. Trumbull County, at least, would seem to be a must-win for Hillary Clinton (the black vote in Cleveland may make Cuyahoga tougher to carry), though a victory there obviously doesn't guarantee a statewide win. Columbus's Franklin County, Canton's Stark County, and Dayton's Montgomery County, by contrast, mirror the state as a whole in competitive races -- but Jesse Jackson did carry Franklin even as he was overwhelmed by Michael Dukakis statewide in 1988. Does that make Dayton the decider next week? Or are the less populous counties that link Canton to Columbus to Dayton the key?

As for the rest of the major voter troves, Akron's Summit County is less labor-oriented than other parts of northeastern Ohio, opting for Hart over Mondale. Youngstown's Mahoning County similarly went for Hart, but it was also the only county in the state where Edwards outpolled Kerry in 2004; an anti-establishment candidate probably has to carry Mahoning to win statewide. (But who is the anti-establishment candidate at this point in the 2008 campaign?) Cincinnati's Hamilton County went for Jackson in both 1984 and 1988. Since Cincinnati is one of the country's most Republican major cities, it's likely that the Democratic primary electorate here is relatively narrow, and thus more favorable toward liberals and "outsider" candidates. (And Obama is running strongly here, according to recent polls.)

Obama's Massachusetts problem

When he first uttered it in an earlier debate, it could be passed off as slip of the tongue.  But after last night's debate, it became hard to ignore:  Barack Obama, whose gifts of oratory have been endlessly commented on, twice last night referred to the state where he lived for three years while attending Harvard Law School as "Massatoosits."  Hillary Clinton may have struggled when it came to spitting out the name of the handpicked successor to Russia's Vladimir Putin, but someone in Obama's inner circle needs to gently coach the candidate on the proper pronounciation of the Bay State.

Happy Town Eating Day!

Norwich, Vermont, is trying to increase attendence at its daylong series of public meetings this Saturday by providing snacks and lunch: "We only ask that you sit with someone you don't know well, talk about the town, and clean up after yourself." The event includes eight gatherings to hash out such topics as "What Can We Do About Main Street?" and "Is Anything in Norwich Worth Saving?" The day concludes with a talk on "the question that's dogged each of us from the womb." No, it's not "What is life?" or "What happens after death?" It's "Who's In Charge Here?"

Other towns have tried to increase civic participation by scheduling meetings at more convenient times or offering child care so that parents can attend, but Norwich may have come the closest to turning town meeting into the kind of conference that many of us regularly attend as part of our jobs. (Without the end-of-the-day gatherings in hotel bars, for better or worse.) Will Massachusetts towns follow Norwich's lead? And will there be a competition among suburbs for who provides the best food at town meetings? I can imagine the real estate agent's pitch: "Yes, the school system in Parkdale is the best in the state, but you haven't lived until you've tasted the duck rillettes at an Elmhurst zoning board meeting!"

UPDATE: Gov. Deval Patrick might have a special appreciation for the power of breaking bread with fellow citizens.

Pew's Religious Census

In other demographic news, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life today released its massive U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, which is based on 35,000 respondents from every conceivable affiliation. Pew tells us that 0.4 percent of the US population belongs to the Church of God Cleveland Tennessee, and 0.3 percent belongs to the Unitarian (Universalist) church. (Wiccans are in the "less than 0.3 percent" catch-all category.)

Massachusetts and Connecticut/Rhode Island (the latter two states are counted as one) stand out as the most Catholic in the US, with 43 percent of the adult population in that church. (Click here to get neat maps that allow you to see the breakdown for each state, or see the table on page 100 of the full report.) But the Catholic Church seems to be changing rapidly. For one thing, it's getting smaller: 31 percent of adults say they were raised Catholic, but only 24 percent say they now consider themselves Catholic. (Conversely, only 7 percent of adults say they were raised without any religious instruction, but 16 percent now say they are unaffiliated with any church.) At the same time, it's becoming more Hispanic: 85 percent of all Catholics over the age of 70 are non-Hispanic white, but only 47 percent of Catholics between 18 and 29 are in that category -- with 45 percent identifying themselves as Hispanic.

Besides membership numbers, the report has data on educational attainment, marital status, and the number of children typically raised by children in each religious group. The US Census doesn't touch this stuff, so the Pew report is probably the closest thing to an accurate reading of religion in America.

New Mexico: Land of Enchantment for businesswomen?

March is Women's History Month, and the Census Bureau is marking the occasion by bundling data on gender differences in education, job earnings, voting participation and the like. One report (668-page PDF here) gives state-by-state figures on how many businesses are owned by men, by women, and by a combination of the two as of 2002. (See the chart below to avoid lots and lots of scrolling.)

According to the data, women without male co-owners are in charge of more than 30 percent of all businesses in just three states (Hawaii, Maryland, and New Mexico), plus the District of Columbia. They own less than 25 percent of all businesses in Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

Businesses with both male and female owners -- presumably including a lot of literal mom-and-pop stores -- are most prevalent in Idaho (21 percent of all businesses), Montana (18 percent), and Nebraska (17 percent). They're least common in the District of Columbia (6 percent) and Massachusetts and New York (both 8 percent).

Men and only men own more than 60 percent of all businesses in Alabama, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Tennessee. (So much for the enlightened Northeast.) New Mexico is the only state where it is even theoretically possible that less than half of all businesses are owned solely by men; a shade under 50 percent are classified as "male-owned," but the numbers for each state don't add up to 100 percent because a small number of businesses are "not classifiable by gender," according to the Census Bureau.

	All firms	Male-owned	% Male-owned	Female-owned	% Female owned	Equally-owned	% Equally owned
US Total	22,974,655	13,184,033	57.39%	6,489,259	28.25%	2,693,360	11.72%
Alabama	309,544	188,389	60.86%	81,821	26.43%	30,000	9.69%
Alaska	62,145	32,108	51.67%	16,308	26.24%	10,427	16.78%
Arizona	381,180	199,506	52.34%	109,748	28.79%	59,797	15.69%
Arkansas	209,010	119,927	57.38%	49,618	23.74%	33,624	16.09%
California	2,908,758	1,625,297	55.88%	870,496	29.93%	346,753	11.92%
Colorado	464,982	253,266	54.47%	135,220	29.08%	63,149	13.58%
Connecticut	301,571	181,355	60.14%	82,118	27.23%	26,698	8.85%
Delaware	63,570	34,548	54.35%	15,344	24.14%	7,800	12.27%
District of Columbia	47,172	24,616	52.18%	15,675	33.23%	2,626	5.57%
Florida	1,539,207	884,919	57.49%	437,355	28.41%	181,246	11.78%
Georgia	674,521	395,156	58.58%	196,195	29.09%	64,669	9.59%
Hawaii	99,224	50,984	51.38%	29,943	30.18%	13,684	13.79%
Idaho	121,560	62,432	51.36%	28,824	23.71%	25,643	21.09%
Illinois	958,120	540,349	56.40%	284,954	29.74%	104,266	10.88%
Indiana	433,907	244,174	56.27%	118,857	27.39%	57,545	13.26%
Iowa	236,515	127,758	54.02%	63,821