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March 2008

March 31, 2008

Four maps: 1948 vs. 2004

As we progress through the presidential election year, I'll be posting maps and spreadsheets showing how American political geography has changed over the past 60 years, and how those trends went into the making of the 10 Political Regions map. First, here are four very basic maps comparing 1948 with 2004 in terms of the percentage received by Democratic candidates in each county, and also in terms of the raw-vote margin between the two major parties. (Note that the Democratic vote in four states in 1948 -- Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina -- was mostly siphoned off by Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond.) I'll be filling adding maps that show what went on between these two elections, as well as close-ups of geographical regions.

UPDATE: See 1960 maps here.

Pctofvote1948 Pctofvote2004 Rawvote1948 Rawvote2004

The Judas factor in Massachusetts

Hub Blog weighs in on the "Judas" dust-up over Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama despite his long involvement with the Clintons:

James Carville defends his 'Judas Iscariot' attack on Bill Richardson and pronounces, 'I believe that loyalty is a cardinal virtue.' Actually, I've come to the conclusion that loyalty is the most abused and overrated of virtues. Its loudest proponents are usually bullies, thugs and gangsters, demanding one-way loyalty toward themselves and rarely extending it back to others.

That reminds me of one of my least favorite quotes about politics in Massachusetts, attributed to the late congressman Joe Moakley but expressed by plenty of local pols over the years: "Never forget where you came from." I get the part about not turning your back on your neighborhood after you've become a success, and I don't dispute that Moakley was an effective defender of the working class, but that quote always carried an element of parochialism and small-mindedness to me, especially in a city known for violence around school busing.

March 30, 2008

Whatever happened to the Electoral College?

A commenter named Patience argues that Obama is more likely than Clinton to get a popular-vote mandate:

I think the Democratic candidate will win in 2008, but I also think Barack Obama might have an interesting advantage on Election Day if he were the nominee: I suspect there would be massive turnout in Southern states by African-Americans who didn't vote in 2000 or 2004 because their state's electoral votes were safely Republican but who would be eager to cast votes for the United States' first black president. I don't think this would be enough to tilt the South's Electoral College votes to the Democrats -- except maybe in Florida and Virginia -- but I bet Obama would win the popular vote by a surprisingly large margin. A large margin would do him a world of good in starting his presidency off on a high note.

That's certainly a concievable scenario, but right now the polls show Republican John McCain running at least even with both Clinton and Obama, with McCain closer to getting to 270 electoral votes. Using Alabama and Mississippi to get a bigger popular-vote margin only works for Obama if he can still carry Michigan and Pennsylvania, even if by one vote each, in order to actually win the presidency.

 

But the question of who can get a bigger popular vote is a reminder that someone may again become president while getting fewer votes than his or her opponent. It happened in 2000, and it nearly happened in 2004. (If Kerry had carried Ohio, he would have won the election, but he still would have finished a couple of million votes behind Bush.) I would love to hear the views of Clinton, McCain, and Obama on the importance of winning the popular vote in order to claim a mandate. If Clinton and Obama say that they would not be troubled by winning in the Electoral Collage and losing the popular vote, they would undermine a lot of Democrats' view that Bush's election in 2000 was illegitimate. And if McCain hints that it would be bad for the country for the Democrats to win by simply flipping Ohio or Florida rather than winning the popular vote -- well, he would essentally be saying that Bush didn't deserve to win in 2000.

After the 2000 election, newly elected Sen. Hillary Clinton came out strongly against the current system of electing presidents, saying, "it's time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president."  (See CBS News.) But I'm guessing that none of the three plausible candidates still in the race are going to express any reservations of a repeat of 2000 before the votes are counted in November.

March 28, 2008

What went into deciding the 10 regions?

Thanks again to Michael Barone for linking to the 10 Regions of American Politics. But Barone did say that some of the regions "don't make much sense to me." That's understandable; I haven't had the time or resources to post all the data that led me to draw the boundaries on the 10 regions. I will post more as we get closer to the general election, but I want to point out that the main factor was the voting history of each county in presidential elections going back to 1948. In particular, I looked at changes from one election to the next, as opposed to margins of victory by one party or another in individual elections. That is, I wanted to give a sense of where shifts in voting patterns led to shifts in party control of the White House -- where John F. Kennedy got new votes in 1960, where the Republicans built an Electoral College advantage in the 1980s, and how we got to the red vs. blue stalemate of 2000.

The graphs below (drawn using the widely hated Powerpoint program) give an idea of how votes have shifted in each of the presidential elections beginning in 1948 (but skipping the landslides of 1952, 1956, 1964, and 1972, for which I haven't had the stomach to tabulate all the data). They apply to Republican margins (or losses) vs. Democratic candidates in each case, since I needed to use a constant measure. Strong third-party candidates in 1968, 1980, and 1992 obviously skewed things, but not enough to change what is, at heart, a two-party system of presidential politics.

In the case of Mega-Chicago vs. Chippewa (which Barone singles out), the former region stayed pretty close to the national pattern and even shifted toward the Republicans in the Ford vs. Carter race of 1976, but has lately become more and more Democratic. In contrast, the more rural Chippewa was noticably more Democratic than the nation as a whole in the 1980s but has recently trended a bit toward the Republicans, perhaps because of social issues.

As I said, there will be more maps and charts, perhaps showing county-by-county breakdowns back to 1948 in order to give some historical perspective. Any suggestions for specific maps are welcomed.

10_regions_2008_with_state_lines

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March 27, 2008

The 2004 Bush swing and the 2008 Democratic primaries

Welcome, Michael Barone readers. (My copy of his Almanac of American Politics is always near my computer.) To elaborate on the point that Barack Obama seems to be doing best in areas that already started to trend away from the Republican Party in 2004 -- and that Hillary Clinton is doing best where there was a shift toward George W. Bush in 2004, including many suburban counties that historically have tilted toward incumbent parties seeking a second term -- I've made a table (see PDF) below of the largest counties that fit this pattern. More analysis to come after I get a chance to update primary numbers. (In some states, smaller counties in particular have reported changes several weeks after the primaries were actually held.)

Download DemprimbyBushchange.pdf

Ralph Martin out, John Dingell still in

The Boston Globe is reporting today that Ralph Martin will not run for mayor next year, and the story by Stephanie Ebbert and Sacha Pfeiffer ends with a quote that pretty much says that holding an election in 2008 will be a waste of time and money:

"Mayor Menino is invincible at this point," said Jeffrey Berry, a professor of political science at Tufts University. "There is no candidate on the horizon who can effectively challenge him."

In other election news today, the residents of Ypsilanti, Michigan, and environs were no doubt heartened to learn that, though the local economy may be tanking, at least they'll be represented by a champion in Congress, John Dingell:

The Dearborn Democrat, who took over the office held by his father in 1955, is set to become the longest-serving member of the House ever on Feb. 14, 2009. He would pass Jamie Whitten, the late Mississippi congressman who holds the House record with 53 years, 2 months and 13 days.

Inexplicably, the Detroit Free Press doesn't mention an even more amazing fact, which is pointed out by Governing.com's Alan Greenblatt:

His dad, John Sr. had represented the district before him for 22 years -- meaning father and son have held the same seat since 1933.

Will Massachusetts turn red in November?

Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Election now has separate maps showing current state-by-state polls for an Obama-McCain matchup and a Clinton-McCain race. For what it's worth, the aggregate of polls shows McCain now ahead of Clinton 223-169, with states amounting to 146 electoral votes too close to call. McCain leads Obama 252-191, with 92 electoral votes in the toss-up category.

The snapshot of polls suggests that Clinton would win Arkansas and West Virginia but that Obama would lose them; on the other side, Obama would carry Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada but McCain would take those states against Clinton. A Clinton nomination would move Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania from the Republican column to toss-up status -- but Hawaii, Maryland, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin would move from Democratic to toss-up. As things stand today, an Obama nomination would move Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia from Republican to toss-up, but Massachusetts and New Jersey would shift from Democratic to toss-up.

Could Massachusetts really vote Republican in a closely contested presidential race for the first time since 1916? Rasmussen now has Obama beating McCain 49-42 and Clinton winning 54-35. A few weeks ago, Survey USA put Obama and McCain in a tie (47-47) and Clinton ahead 55-42.

I doubt that Massachusetts will really be up for grabs if the election is at all close. (For that matter, I can't see Nebraska or North Dakota going Democratic in that situation.) But it's not totally inconceivable, and one reason can be found in today's unflattering New York Times story on Gov. Deval Patrick. One has to wonder just how much support Obama would get from the Democratic establishment figures such as House Speaker Sal DiMasi:

Mr. DiMasi, who supports Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York for president, has openly tried to link Mr. Obama to Mr. Patrick’s difficulties, suggesting, along with other critics, that the two are alike in their lack of executive experience. Before the Massachusetts primary in February, Mr. DiMasi said that he did not want a president “in there on a learning process” during his first year in office. (Despite endorsements from Mr. Patrick and Senators Edward M. Kennedy and John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mr. Obama lost to Mrs. Clinton here by a wide margin.)

Is there a parallel to the 1998 gubernatorial race in Massachusetts? In that year, support for Democratic nominee Scott Harshbarger seemed tepid among Democratic legislators and municipal officials, and Republican nominee Paul Cellucci ultimately prevailed, in large part because he did so well in urban areas. Is there similarly fertile ground for John McCain against Obama in places like Lowell and Brockton? 

 

Casino culture

Despite last week's burying of Gov. Deval Patrick's casino bill, don't look for the gambling industry to go quietly into the good night.  The Boston Herald reports today that casino interests are keeping a steady eye on the Bay State for fresh opportunities to take another run at legalizing casino gambling.  "Politics is patience and perseverance," Jan Jones, government affairs cheese for Harrah's Entertainment, tells the Herald.  It almost sounds like the sort of keep-on-keepin'-on attitude that eventually led to victory in heroic battles for women's suffrage or voting rights for blacks. 

Those are not exactly the sort of references used by casino critics to describe the relentless drive of the gambling industry.  In a 2005 article in CommonWealth magazine on the perennial push for expanded gambling, state Rep. Dan Bosley, the Legislature's leading casino opponent, offered a different sort of imagery:

One year, the Legislature voted down a gaming bill on a Monday or Tuesday, then, “on Thursday one of the gambling interests came in to see me and says, ‘How can we change your mind,’” [Bosley] says. “It’s like Freddy Krueger. It keeps showing up no matter how many movies it dies at the end of.”

March 26, 2008

Rejecting and denouncing rejecting and denouncing

The Atlantic's James Fallows can't resist blogging about the American presidential campaign from China. This particular post is about the audacity of the Clinton campaign in getting its messages out via publications owned by Richard Sciafe, one of the leaders of the "vast right-wing conspiracy" that tried to hound Bill Clinton out of office in the 1990s. (Also see Josh Marshall on this point.)

But the best line in Fallows's post is this: "I don't like attempts to stifle argument when they occur in China, and I don't like this in the United States." One of the most discouraging developments in American politics is the constant pressure on candidates to denounce, condemn, disavow, repudiate, and, whenever possible, take a job away from any supporter (or even family member?) who says or writes something impolitic. Given that one of the main criticisms of President George W. Bush is that he has sealed himself in a bubble, ignoring anyone with contrary views, it seems odd to ask those who want to succeed him to stop associating with people who might challenge their thinking.

Public vs. private pensions

I've finally read my copy of January's Notes, the monthly newsletter from the Employee Benefit Research Institute. (They need more exciting covers.) It features lots of charts on how educational attainment and other demographic factors affect pensions. For example, people with graduate degrees are the most likely to collect retirement benefits -- but middle-income workers are more likely to be getting benefits (though they're less generous) than high-income workers. Also, there remains a big gender gap, with the median annual pension for a man at $14,280 and for a woman at $7,848.

The differences between private- and public-sector employees are also striking. Among people over 50, 12.6 percent of people who had worked in the private sector were collecting pensions or retirement annuities as of 2006, compared with only 7.5 percent of people who had worked for the government. But the mean annual income from pensions and annuities was much higher for public-sector retirees ($17,974) than for private-sector retirees ($8,148). This is nothing new: the public-private ratio has been a bit more than 2 to 1 for at least the past 30 years. And it doesn't seem likely that the gap will narrow, given that private employers are cutting back on retirement benefits. As the EBRI authors note: "future retirees will likely be more reliant on assets they must manage themselves instead of receiving a stream of income for life (i.e., an annuity)."

March 25, 2008

Births vs. deaths

The Census Bureau recently published county-by-county data on population changes from 2006 to 2007 (see previous post), giving us lots of opportunities for cartographical noodling. The two maps below (one a close-up of the Northeast) compare the number of births recorded by county last year with the number of deaths recorded in the same time period. Some of the larger counties at one extreme or the other are highlighted.

In most of the country, there were more than enough births to offset deaths, but there are large patches where the opposite is true. Some of the counties in this category are retiree magnets (Florida), but most are small, rural areas that are apparently not hospitable for young families for various reasons (no jobs? no affordable housing?). These counties are concentrated in the Great Plains states and the Appalachia region.

Much of the West and South are in the opposite situation. But families are not necessarily swarming to the great open spaces. The birth-death ratio is highest in counties close to major cities, including Denver, Salt Lake City, and Washington, DC.

More maps to come, with a less ghoulish bent...

Birthsvsdeathsus Birthsvsdeathsne

March 24, 2008

Holyoke goes back to the garden

Corby Kummer writes about Nuestras Raices, a community gardening program in the "Gateway City" of Holyoke, in the new issue of the Atlantic magazine. Read Kummer's piece, but also check out Melissa DaPonte Katz's "A Tale of Two Valleys," from the Fall 2006 issue of CommonWealth, in which she writes about Nuestras Raices and the larger issues of poverty and downtown redevelopment in Holyoke, one of the poorest communities in the state and the most heavily Puerto Rican city on the US mainland. (Another CommonWealth, contributor, B.J. Roche, wrote a piece on Nuestras Raices that accompanied Katz's story.) As Katz wrote:

Over time, Holyoke has become the beneficiary of a plethora of publicly funded health and human services, along with grants to combat its problems with gangs, teen pregnancy, and school dropouts. But local officials are now looking for ways to use public dollars to help the city do more than scrape by. Their goal is to salvage something that was left behind by the industrialists who helped develop the city more than 150 years ago: a canal system originally built to power paper and textile mills by harnessing energy from the Connecticut River.

Kummer's focus is not so much the industrial past but the agricultural future at a 30-acre farm along the riverbank:

Ortiz knows how to cook the vegetables he grows (he told me how he fries eggplant): his father is a professional cook, and “half my friends,” he says, are studying to be chefs at Dean Technical. “Some people think gardening is for girls only,” he told me, “and you should get a real job, like working at a factory.” But “seeing someone popular do it makes it easier.”

So does seeing men grow vegetables during the day and use the gardens as social clubs at night. On summer weekends, there are music festivals on a bandstand built from foraged wood. The pig roasts, tended by men, are so popular that the farm will spin off a lechonera, the name for restaurants and roadside stands all over Puerto Rico that sell spit-roasted pig and traditional side dishes.

What's the matter with Kansas now?

USA Today has a cool set of maps based on county-by-county population trends from 2000 through 2007. The most striking thing is that Kansas and other Great Plains states are losing people by every measure: raw population change, "natural increase" (births over deaths), migration to and from other states, and international immigration.

Massachusetts is still growing in large part because of immigration.

UPDATE: The new Census data indicate that two counties in Massachusetts have lost population since 2000: Barnstable (because deaths outnumbered births by almost 6,000) and Berkshire (because about 3,500 more Americans moved out than moved in).

As for the rest, six counties have gone up in population primarily because births outnumbered deaths (Bristol, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Worcester), and the other six have gone up primarily because of an influx of international immigrants (Dukes, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, and Suffolk).

March 21, 2008

African-American opinion on Obama and Wright

From CommonWealth staff writer Gabrielle Gurley:

Where you stand on the Sen. Barack Obama-Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy depends on where you sit.  From TV sitcoms to presidential candidates, that African Americans think differently than whites should come as no surprise to anyone who has voluntarily emerged from the comforts of his or her own cultural cocoon.

The furor over Rev.Wright has once again underlined those differences. Even the most cursory foray into the parallel universe of African American news and commentary shows that few black observers are as deeply disturbed by the sermons of Rev. Wright as their counterparts in the predominately white mainstream news media.

TheRoot.com, the newest black news and views entrant, launched by The Washington Post in January, aims to “[raise] the profile of black voices in mainstream media and engage anyone interested in black culture around the world.” In “Is Obama Wrong About Wright?” Michael Dawson opines that “the problem is that Wright's opinions are well within the mainstream of those of black America.”

BlackAmericaWeb, “a broad-based effort to become a timely and credible source for news and information covering all aspects of daily life, featuring a wide array of viewpoints and perspectives,” serves up Deborah Mathis’s commentary, “The Wright Dust-Up Shows and Proves That Many Whites Don’t Know Black People at All”:

Not every minister seasons his or her sermons with political commentary, and not every one who does is as fiercely spoken as Rev. Wright, but there is nothing unusual about the black clergy as social agitator. Guess the shockees didn’t know that. It seems they were also clueless that, when race, racism and discrimination do invade the pulpit, it is not always in the context of forgiveness and humility. Much of black America is resentful, angry and distrustful -- rightly so, some of us would say.

Reaction from blogger Shay at Booker Rising, a “news site for black moderates and conservatives” especially those 45 and under, is also low-key:

Since I live in the Chicago area, where Trinity United Church of Christ is located and where members have now been asked not to speak to the media, I had to agree with Sen. Obama when he argued that Rev. Wright is also more than how he has been portrayed and to reduce Rev. Wright to that narrow definition also emphasizes the negative and not the positive.

Of Obama’s Philadelphia address on race, New York Post editorial writer Robert A. George, a black conservative, says that Illinois senator gave “a brave speech” and throws this out on his blog, Ragged Thots:

Many conservatives who thought Obama was full of it will be even more convinced. Newt Gingrich called it "fundamentally dishonest" (one of those oh-so-rare times when I disagree with my former boss). However, the glee with which Rush Limbaugh declares that Obama has become "the candidate of race" is rather disturbing. It may be just to criticize Obama for not condemning Wright earlier -- or not abandoning his church -- but exulting in Obama's de facto "ghettoization" is nothing short of bizarre. So, we want more black "candidates of race", right, Rush? Great.

George also explores an important component that has gotten lost in the debate:

I wasn't raised in American black culture. I've attended mostly white churches. However, the few black churches to which I have attended aren't different just in their degree of worship; they are different in kind. The sermons are longer; the interactivity is more obvious; music is an essential element -- and they are spirited. And politics is a greater part of the sermons than they are in most white congregations I've attended. And there is an historical basis for that: The black church was the one area, from slavery and through Jim Crow, where their community could be a community without fear of the Powers That Be.

The progressive BlackCommentator.com features 14 takes on the historic speech from the site’s editorial board members. Jamala Rogers contributes this observation:

Most black folks are attracted to—even if superficially—anyone who speaks truth to power, who can “tell the truth and shame the devil.” I have yet to find a black person to wholly condemn the sermons by Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Our lives, our voices are muted or silenced every day in so many ways. Even our joys and successes are eclipsed by louder voices and more powerful images that propel the perceived worst of a people into the public domain. This often results in our blanket condemnation of one another without looking at the historical roots of our oppression. Or working harder to prove we are worthy of being US citizens and the rights that come with such a privilege originally conceived only for white men.

The presidential race has become a metaphor for race relations in this country: women (Hillary Clinton) and people of color (Barack Obama) duking it out while white men (John McCain) continuing their game plan.

Obama has put all his race cards on the table. It remains to be seen how his hand plays out.

March 20, 2008

Fudging high school graduation rates

Fans of The Wire already know how police departments cook crime stats. Today the New York Times reports on how school systems use fuzzy math to come up with graduation rates:

One team of statisticians working at the state education headquarters here recently calculated the official graduation rate at a respectable 87 percent, which Mississippi reported to Washington. But in another office piled with computer printouts, a second team of number crunchers came up with a different rate: a more sobering 63 percent.

The state schools superintendent, Hank Bounds, says the lower rate is more accurate and uses it in a campaign to combat a dropout crisis.

March 19, 2008

Arkansas cracks down on high interest "payday loans"

Via Governing.com, the attorney general of Arkansas is ordering the shutdown of 156 "payday lending outlets" that make personal loans, with extremely high interest rates, against a borrower's future paychecks. According to the Arkansas News Bureau:

The state constitution's usury provision prohibits anyone from charging more than 17 percent interest. But payday lenders have said the triple-digit interest rates they charge are allowed by the 1999 Check Cashers Act, which says a fee paid for holding a check written before the date it is to be cashed "shall not be deemed interest."

Arkansas' highest court addressed the conflict in two opinions this year.

Justices said the 1999 law did not give payday lenders "blanket protection" to exceed the usury limit. Additionally, in both cases, the court ruled that customers can collect the surety bond from a payday lender found to have violated the state constitution's usury limit.

A group called Arkansans Against Abusive Payday Lending is trying to get banks to offer short-term loans at more reasonable rates, but the payday lenders aren't likely to go quietly. This could be an interesting fight in the attempt to keep the "predatory economy" from getting out of control.

March 14, 2008

Which Washington Street?

The Boston Globe's Maria Cramer reports that police responded to a homicide call by going to the wrong Washington Street

The mistake underscores the confusing nature of Boston's road patterns, where streets of the same name exist in different neighborhoods. The police were heading to Washington Street on Sunday. There are at least three streets with that name in the city: in downtown, Dorchester, and West Roxbury.

Note that the Globe isn't even confident of how many there are ("at least"). The logical thing would be to rename two of the Washington Streets, but that sort of thing just isn't done in tradition-minded Boston.

March 13, 2008

Fever-induced presidential campaign questions

I'm home sick today, perhaps because my body can't deal with the sudden halt in presidential debates and primary returns, but I do have two fever-induced questions about the Democatic race:

First, how does House Speaker Nancy Pelosi fit into the debate over supposed sexism and double standards as applied to Hillary Clinton? Pelosi is now the highest ranking Democrat in the nation, and if Clinton is elected president, the two most powerful figures in American politics will both be women. (This is assuming that Clinton does not cede Cheney-like powers to her running mate.) As the person charged with getting Clinton's proposals through the House, Pelosi could emerge as a powerful speaker in the vein of Tip O'Neill and Newt Gingrich. How does Pelosi's rise fit with the idea that the Democratic party establishment is biased against women? Has media coverage of Pelosi (outside of hardcore Republican news outlets) been tainted by sexist stereotypes? And why isn't Barack Obama constantly saying how much he's looking forward to working with Pelosi?

Second, does Obama really have a good answer to the charge that he can't carry major states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania in the general election? It would certainly be impressive if he could win a deep red state such as Kansas, but that would hardly make up for the loss of Pennsylvania. And if he loses the white vote in the Keystone State as badly as he did in Ohio, the Clinton campaign's "he can't win" argument, while obviously self-serving, would have some credibility to it. Going into Pennsylvania (and a possible re-vote in Michigan), I think it's obvious that Obama has to lay off the "yes, we can" commercials and use one of the hokiest ad pitches in American politics: "talking head" ads featuring white guys in hard hats and white women in nurses' uniforms. Endorsements from elected officials aren't going to help him much, but saying, "This person who could be your neighbor has taken a hard look at me and decided I would make the best president" might carry more weight.

March 11, 2008

Milford cracks down on flashers

Danielle Ameden at the Milford Daily News reports that the Massachusetts town of 28,000 is cracking down on "flashy" signs such as the one at Dunkin' Donuts on South Main Street. The Board of Selectmen is worried that the current anti-flashing law, prohibiting signs from changing more than once every five seconds, isn't tough enough, so they're considering a measure that "would require that changeable message panels display the same message for at least one hour, with switching between messages allowed only eight times a day."

Milford is also standing tall against "adult entertainment." Spurred to action by a pub owner's request to add exotic dancing to his menu, selectmen adopted 36 pages of regulations on the activity, including: "no lap dances, no touching and no private rooms. There must be sufficient lighting, tips can only be stuffed into jars on the edge of stage and bouncers are required at every door with at least two more inside."

Subway use up 3 percent nationally, down 8 percent in Boston

Ridership numbers for the year 2007 were posted yesterday by the American Public Transportation Association, which noted that trips on public transit totalled 10.3 billion in the US, or 2.1 percent over the previous year's tally. Total trips on Boston's MBTA, however, decreased by 2.9 percent.

The use of light rail (trolleys and streetcars) increased by 6.1 percent nationally, though that figure was apparently inflated by the restoration of streetcar service in New Orleans. MBTA light-rail ridership was up by 1.0 percent (see data for individual cities here), but it was up by 26 percent in Philadelphia and 15 percent in the state of New Jersey.

Heavy rail (subway) ridership was up 3.1 percent nationally, led by a 13 percent jump in San Juan and a 10 percent increase in Atlanta. In Boston, subway use dropped by 7.8 percent (maybe that's because of all the times subway lines were shut down and replaced by shuttle buses).

Commuter rail ridership was up 5.5 percent nationally and up 1.7 percent on the MBTA. Bus usage was up slightly on the national level by down a bit on the MBTA.

The Nashville area had the biggest increase in mass transit usage overall, thanks to a commuter rail system that saw 92,700 trips in 2006 and 226,000 trips last year. The biggest decline was in Syracuse, New York, where bus usage (there's no other kind of mass transit there) dropped by 27 percent.

March 10, 2008

The 10 Regions of Democratic primary politics

The chart below shows how the two leading Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have been faring in our 10 Regions of US Politics. The figures include all primaries (including Florida and Michigan) and all caucuses that provide county-by-county results. I will be tweaking this as more returns come in (and replacing the Florida and Michigan data with any re-vote that might occur in those states).

Clinton and Obama are pretty close in most of the regions, but Clinton has a big lead in El Norte (the most Latino region), and Obama has a sizable lead in Mega-Chicago (not just because of his home state of Illinois but because of strong showings in places like Columbus, Ohio, and St. Louis, Missouri).

More striking is how different the results are in counties that went in different directions in the 2004 general election. Clinton is cleaning up in counties where George W. Bush improved his vote share by at least 5 points when he ran for re-election. Among states that votes last week, these include Hidalgo, Nueces, and Cameron counties in Texas (all heavily Hispanic, including the city of Brownsville); and Shelby, Darke, and Mercer counties in Ohio (all rural counties near the Indiana border). But Obama is handily winning in counties where Bush lost ground in 2004, long before his national poll numbers began heading toward the 30s. These include the counties for Dallas and Houston in Texas, and for Columbus and Cleveland in Ohio. Perhaps Obama has more appeal where Bush has long been unpopular, and voters are optimistic about winning in November. Meanwhile, Clinton has more appeal where Bush made the most inroads in 2004 -- and where there's fear that the same tactics could help the GOP this fall.

Download 2008Dprimariesbyregion.pdf

Total vote Clinton Obama Other  Clinton Obama Other
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR 3,308,496 1,653,406 1,588,795 66,295 50.0% 48.0% 2.0%
SOUTH COAST 2,463,349 964,646 1,264,003 234,700 39.2% 51.3% 9.5%
EL NORTE 3,319,911 1,833,575 1,334,280 152,056 55.2% 40.2% 4.6%
UPPER COASTS 3,274,646 1,665,215 1,458,841 150,590 50.9% 44.5% 4.6%
CHIPPEWA 2,368,841 1,219,902 1,091,676 57,263 51.5% 46.1% 2.4%
COMANCHE 3,346,513 1,604,989 1,599,519 142,005 48.0% 47.8% 4.2%
CUMBERLAND 1,312,321 680,379 593,499 38,443 51.8% 45.2% 2.9%
MEGA-CHICAGO 3,513,037 1,389,273 1,862,636 261,128 39.5% 53.0% 7.4%
SOUTHERN INLAND 2,944,761 1,267,315 1,455,380 222,066 43.0% 49.4% 7.5%
FRONTIER 1,270,197 601,490 579,441 89,266 47.4% 45.6% 7.0%
US TOTAL 27,122,072 12,880,190 12,828,070 1,119,548 47.5% 47.3% 4.1%
>10 point gain for GOP in 2004 273,158 175,303 80,985 16,870 64.2% 29.6% 6.2%
5-10 point gain for GOP in 2004 4,730,893 2,693,675 1,758,822 278,396 56.9% 37.2% 5.9%
<5 point gain for GOP in 2004 16,931,889 8,021,015 7,985,675