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May 15, 2008

Obama's rural peaks and valleys

As other bloggers have noted (see Al Giordano), Barack Obama's weakness among rural voters seems most pronounced along the Appalachian Mountains, though the map below suggests that the anti-Obama region extends farther west to take in Oklahoma and northern Texas.

West Virginia, which went overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton last week, seems to represent the absolute nadir of rural support for Obama; southern Ohio wasn't much more hospitable. But notice that he was more competitive in the rural counties of Indiana and Missouri, which accounts for the tight races in those states' primaries. And Obama's strong showings in the West and upper Midwest so far means that he can probably count on victories in the Montana, Oregon, and South Dakota primaries. Whether he can be competitive in a state like Montana in the general election is another question.

Obama_rural_primary_vote

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