Top 50 bellwethers for presidential election trends

The attention given to Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in this year's presidential campaign may be statistically justifiable. The map above (click it to enlarge) shows "bellwether" counties in the US -- not based on who won the them in recent elections but on how closely the came to matching the nationwide swing for or against the winning party. I calculated the percentage-point differences between each county's swing and the nationwide swing for each election from 1980 through 2004, then added them all up to find out the places that have deviated the least from the US total over that time. (For example, there was a swing toward the GOP and George W. Bush of 2.86 points in the last election. A county that swing 12.86 points toward Bush and a county that swung 7.14 points away from Bush would each be penalized 10 points for that election.)

Most of the bellweathers are in the Rust Belt states from Pennsylvania to Illinois -- but around the edges of the region rather than in the more economically vulnerable counties of Appalachia. There are few bellwethers in the South, where trends in presidential elections seem strongly influenced by whether a party puts a Southerner on its ticket. The Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states are usually tougher on the incumbent party than is the nation as a whole, perhaps because of their distance from DC. The more affluent Northeastern Corridor and Southern California counties generally lag behind the rest of the country in swinging against the party in power.

Below are the 50 counties in order, beginning with the one that's deviated the least from national trends. You can also get an Excel spreadsheet detailing the calculations here: Download DeviancyfromtrendBRBshort.xls (39.0K)

UPDATE: Counties with an *asterisk swung toward Barack Obama in 2008 to a much greater degree than the US as a whole and will probably be dropped from this list. The one county with a #pound sign swung away from Obama and will also likely be eliminated. The counties where Obama lost the most support were concentrated in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee and were not bellwethers to begin with.

1. Defiance, OH
2. Cumberland, PA
3. Howard, IN*
4. Ogle, IL
5. Susquehanna, PA
6. Kane, IL*
7. Cass, MI
8. Marion, OH
9. Lancaster, PA*
10. Wayne, IN
11. Bradford, PA
12. Boone, IN*
13. Adams, PA
14. El Paso, CO
15. Carroll, IL
16. Butler, OH
17. Tulsa, OK
18. York, PA
19. Madison County, VA
20. Hancock, OH
21. Johnson, IN*
22. Marshall, IN*
23. Sacramento, CA
24. Allen, OH
25. Berks, PA
26. Fulton, OH
27. Washington, MD
28. Hendricks, IN*
29. Wayne, PA
30. Yamhill, OR
31. Campbell, KY
32. Bartholomew, IN*
33. Delaware, OH
34. Kenton, KY
35. St. Joseph, MI*
36. Stanislaus, CA
37. Lycoming, PA
38. Wood, OH
39. Sampson, NC
40. Roanoke City, VA
41. Washington, NC
42. Monroe, MI
43. Salem City, VA
44. Harrison, TX#
45. Boone, IL
46. King William County, VA
47. Maricopa, AZ
48. Crawford, PA
49. Williams, OH
50. Pima, AZ

Comments

[David Hendricks]

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